How good will this NCAA men’s college basketball tournament be?
I mean, sure, the George Mason thing was awesome last year, and let’s not forget Wichita St. and Bradley made the Sweet 16, LSU stunned Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second year in a row, a #14 seed. (Northwestern St.) stunned a #3 (Iowa), and #2 Tennessee needed a buzzer-beater to avoid losing to #15 Winthrop.
Heck, we may not even have that many surprises this year, and I can pretty much guarantee you that no one from the Colonial Athletic Association will make it to the Final Four. But a combination of factors will come together and make this one of the toughest years to fill your rank of office. This is why:
Freshmen! Over the last decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant would have jumped straight into the NBA, but now they’re playing at least a year of college basketball. That makes for some great surprises. Who would have believed Texas would be in the tournament this year after losing all five starters to an Elite Eight team, let alone be a threat to go deep?
Leaving freshmen. And while that’s all very well, you also have a lot less depth of quality in traditional power schools, because their studs don’t stay four years. This is the great leveller: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, #2 in the 2006 NBA draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, #4), Rudy Gay (UConn, #7), Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley, #9 ), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, #14), Cedric Simmons (NC State, #15), Shawne Williams (Memphis, #17), Quincy Douby (Rutgers, #19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, #20), Rajon Rondo (Kentucky, #21), Marcus Williams (UConn, #22), Josh Boone (UConn, #23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, #24), Shannon Brown (Michigan St., #25), and Jordan Farmar ( UCLA, #26). All of these kids left before their fourth years were out, as we can expect Oden, Durant, and others to do after 2007. That kind of ongoing brain drain culture brings the little guy a little closer to the big guy.
Advertising For “Non-Traditional” Schools. Fewer and fewer teams are blown away by the national television attention of playing in the Big Dance. The Missouri Valley Conference has more of a pub than Britney’s nether regions these days (well, okay, it’s close), so there’s really nothing “medium important” about the MVC. Winthrop beat Mississippi St., Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year, scaring North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M (his only four losses from him). They may not win their first round game, but they sure as hell won’t be afraid of their opponent.
Who is a top seed? No one seems to want to be #1 this year. A month ago, it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA, and Wisconsin. Then each of those schools started losing. UCLA just got out of the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. Carolina lost three of its last six regular season games. Florida lost three of its last five. Wisconsin lost two of its last three. Now Ohio St. is the top-ranked team in the country, but man, are they young. Does anyone really expect them to stick together through six NCAA tournament games? Other possibilities for the #1 seeds: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ew). There is no flawless team in the group.
It should be one hell of a March Madness run anyway. No team is flawless, and very few are without chance.
Boy, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been the best acquisitions so far in pro football’s free agent season?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Two teams made a series of moves that made them the “co-winners” of the early 2007 free agency period. The New England Patriots shed their label as a “thrifty” team and they really caused a sensation in free agency. Adalius Thomas was arguably the most sought-after defensive player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the most versatile PR/KR/WRs in the NFL. They also added value at backup RB Sammy Morris to make up for the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers also did a lot to improve their woeful secondary that ranked 26th against the pass a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl-caliber DBm, while Michael Lewis is a solid if unspectacular upgrade in safety. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lelie, receiving another deep threat to work on quarterback Alex Smith’s offensive arsenal.
I’ll ask about some specific NCAA Tournament matchups next week, but for now, can you give me your anticipated Final Four, pre-brackets?
BDB, BoDog.com: Let’s leave Bodog punters for this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio State (6/1), and Kansas (6/1).
And give us a couple of teams that will be seeded #9 or worse, who do you think has the best chance of causing an upset in the first round?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Well, everyone wrote off Gonzaga when they lost Josh Heytvelt to suspension, but you can never forget the Zags when it comes to tournament time. After losing to a very tough Memphis team by a single point on February 2. On January 17, Gonzaga won his last five games and took the West Coast Conference tournament for the fourth consecutive season. Senior shooting guard Derek Raivio has put this team on his shoulders, and so far it’s working. He’ll also watch out for Syracuse if he gets an offer. The Orange beat Georgetown on February 2. 26 and won five of his last six games after struggling in a big way in late January.
Mavs or Suns? Suns or Mavs? I know Dallas has been amazing during the regular season…do you see that translating into another trip to the NBA Finals? Does Phoenix have enough to do it this time? Can San Antonio sneak in there?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Teams that make it to the NBA Finals are rarely one-dimensional. So until Phoenix learns to play defense, or half-court offense, they will have their skeptics. Still, with 9/4 to win it all, they also have a fair amount of believers. San Antonio will not sneak up on anyone. Not with a roster that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs have 7/2 to reach the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win. That’s not representative of flying under the radar. However, according to Bodog oddsmakers, the team with the best chance is the Dallas Mavericks. They’re a well-rounded team that can beat San Antonio with a stifling defense and get past Phoenix with a barrage of offense. The Mavs’ ability to play anyone’s style makes them a 1/1 favorite to return to the Finals and a 2/1 favorite to win the title.